By Jeff Louderback
Though they squandered a 5-0 lead and dropped the final game of the season at Baltimore, 7-6, the Boston Red Sox have every reason to feel encouraged about their first taste of October baseball since 2009.
With a 97-65 mark, the Red Sox wrapped up home park advantage through the American League playoffs. They will also have the same advantage if they reach the World Series since the AL won the All-Star Game.
Like every team in the postseason, the Sox have their strengths and their concerns. They include:
Strengths
Deep and Talented Starting Pitching
Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Jake Peavy will compose the Red Sox rotation in the ALDS. All four pitchers have posted lackluster outings over the last two weeks – and Buchholz has yet to showcase the typical velocity on his fast ball since returning from the DL – yet each starter has the ability to shut down an opposing lineup. Those are the type of arms you need to play deep into October.
A Productive Lineup From Top to Bottom
The Red Sox are tops in the majors with a .349 on-base percentage, .446 slugging percentage, a .795 OPS, 853 runs, 363 doubles, 819 RBI and a .283 batting average. Simply put, they can rake.
Jacoby Ellsbury belted a leadoff home run on Sunday and his foot appears to be healthy. Shane Victorino has an aching back and a nagging hamstring, but he is gutting it out and has remained productive. Mike Napoli‘s sore foot has not kept him from generating runs. Will Middlebrooks has regained his hitting stroke and has demonstrated a more patient plate approach since being recalled from Pawtucket. Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz are the cornerstones.
Since the starting pitching is effective, the Red Sox typically will win games when they score at least four or five runs. This lineup is capable of that, even against top pitching.
The Eighth and Ninth Innings
Koji Uehara completed one of the best seasons for a reliever in Major League history with a 1.09 ERA, a .130 opponent’s batting average and a Major League record (for at least 50 innings) 0.57 ERA.
Veteran left-hander Craig Breslow has served as one of the best set-up men in the game while right-hander Junichi Tazawa has been effective (aside from allowing two runs in two of his final three outings).
Red Sox starters have consistently pitched deep into games this season. That will be especially beneficial in the postseason.
Productive Bench
Jonny Gomes from the right side and Mike Carp from the left side give Red Sox manager John Farrell viable pinch-hitting options. David Ross is one of the best defensive catchers in the game and can stop the opposing team’s running game. If speedster Quintin Berry makes the ALDS roster, the Red Sox will have their 2013 version of Dave Roberts for pinch-running assignments.
Undeniable Camaraderie
Chemistry alone does not translate into World Series titles. Talent, obviously, is required. The Red Sox have both, which is why this year’s team is reminiscent of the 2004 club. The Red Sox are likable – the type of team that plays the game the right way and the type of club you want to see succeed.
Concerns
Middle Relief
Simply put, Matt Thornton stinks, and rookies Drake Britton and Brandon Workman are not pitching well.
Uehara has the ninth. Breslow and Tazawa are palatable for the eighth. Ryan Dempster and Franklin Morales can be used in a variety of scenarios. Beyond those five, the Red Sox bullpen is a bit frightening.
Thornton, Britton and Workman cannot be relied upon. Neither can Felix Doubront, who was pummeled on Sunday and is admittedly uncomfortable pitching out of the bullpen. Likely, two of those four will round out the ALDS bullpen. The Red Sox need their starters to at least get into the seventh inning and hope that anyone beyond Uehara, Breslow, Tazawa, Dempster and Morales is not needed.
The Health of Jacoby Ellsbury and Shane Victorino
Jacoby Ellsbury‘s foot. Shane Victorino‘s back and hamstring. The Red Sox need those body parts to stay healthy during the postseason. If one or the other sustains an injury in October, the Sox will require a more substantial role from rookie Jackie Bradley Jr. and/or speedster Quintin Berry. Carp, Gomes and Daniel Nava are all average at best on defense.
Clay Buchholz‘s Velocity
The right-hander’s fast ball was limited to 88 in his outing on Friday. He attributes the diminished velocity on a lack of sleep the previous night. Perhaps he slept on his shoulder the wrong way. He allowed just five earned runs in four starts and 24 innings in September after returning from the DL, but the health and strength of his right shoulder is a concern for the postseason.
